CCMC CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2026-07-21T15:12:00-CME-001)

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2026 Jul 23 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at moderate levels as Region 4493 (N05W19,
Eki/beta-gamma) produced an M3.6 at 22/0635 UTC, which was the largest
event of the period and was associated with a 10.7cm radio burst of 200
sfu. Additionally, 4493 produced a C3.4 flare at 22/1553 UTC which was
associated with another 10.7cm radio burst of 150 sfu. AR 4493 continued
to undergo consolidation in its leading and trailing spots, but showed
signs of new flux emergence in its intermediate area during the early
hours of the reporting period. Region 4494 (S04E52, Hsx/alpha) developed
new, simple spots, but remained uni-polar. The remaining two numbered
active regions were relatively stable and quiet.

The filament eruption NW of Region 4493 at 21/1045 UTC that was
mentioned in the previous discussion was modeled and assessed to be at
least partially Earth-directed. While modeling efforts suggest that a
bulk of the material should pass north and ahead of Earth's orbit, this
is low confidence given the faintness of this event in Sun-Earth line
focused coronagraph imagery and compounded by likely interaction with
the coronal hole in the vicinity of the source location.

.Forecast...
Additional M-class flare activity (R1-R2 radio blackouts) is likely
through 25 July primarily due to the flare potential currently exhibited
by AR 4493.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to
moderate levels through 24 Jul with a chance for high levels returning
on 25 Jul with post high speed stream and possible CME effects.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at
background levels through 25 Jul with a 5% chance for an S1 or greater
event primarily due to the event potential of AR 4493.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced under a sustained negative
polarity CH HSS regime and a possible secondary CIR or transient. Total
field values reached a peak of 11-12 nT while the Bz component underwent
a sustained southward deflection of -5 to -10 nT during the first half
of the reporting period before settling to near neutral to northward
values. Solar wind speeds were roughly between 400km/s and 482 km/s. Phi
became variable between solar sectors after approximately 22/1000 UTC.

.Forecast...
The current regime is expected to largely continue through 25 Jul.
Additional enhancements are possible beginning on late 23 Jul due to a
CME that left the Sun 20 Jul with stronger enhancements arriving by
early on 24 Jul with the arrival of the aforementioned CME event from 21
Jul.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Quiet to active conditions are expected through 24 Jul under negative
polarity CH HSS effects combined with the anticipated arrival of CMEs
that left the Sun on 20 and 21 July beginning on late day one (23 Jul).
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 24 Jul if the latter of the
two events arrives at Earth. Again, modeling suggests that a bulk of the
material from this event should pass north and ahead of Earth, but
higher levels of geomagnetic storming (25% for G2 or greater) cannot be
ruled out if this event is indeed more Earth-directed than predicted.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2026 Jul 23 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 23-Jul 25 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 23-Jul 25 2026

             Jul 23       Jul 24       Jul 25
00-03UT       4.00         3.67         2.67     
03-06UT       3.67         4.67 (G1)    2.33     
06-09UT       2.67         4.33         2.00     
09-12UT       3.00         4.00         1.33     
12-15UT       2.00         2.33         1.33     
15-18UT       2.00         2.33         1.67     
18-21UT       3.00         3.00         2.00     
21-00UT       3.33         2.67         2.33     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely for 24 Jul due to
likely CME influences.

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